On the 15th, when the won-to-yen exchange rate fell to 904 won per 100 yen during the day, Mr. Lee (38), an office worker, opened a bank app and changed his 2 million won to about 220,000 yen and put it in his bank account in yen. Mr. Lee said, “Around this time last year and at the end of last year, the won-yen exchange rate fell below 950 won, so many people around me bought yen, so I bought it, but the yen fell even more than then, so I bought more.” “I plan to travel to Japan for the time being. I don’t have any, but I think the yen is quite cheap, so I’m buying it as an investment.”
As the won-yen exchange rate has fallen to its lowest level in eight years since June 2015 (lowest 100 yen = 880 won), individuals are in full swing to hoard yen. Looking at the balance of yen deposits at the four major commercial banks of Shinhan, KB, Hana, and Woori, a total of 577.8 billion yen (5.267 trillion won) at the end of April rose to 803.9 billion yen (7.33 trillion won) as of the 11th of this month, a 39% increase . Deposits in yen increased by an average of 8.4 billion yen (approximately 77 billion won) per day.
Investors “Ntech is the hottest these days”
These days, investors who feel that the yen is cheap and go to yen tech (yen + investment) remember that ‘100 yen = 1,000 won’ is the average won-yen exchange rate메이저사이트. In fact, the average exchange rate for the yen over the past 10 years has been 1025.3 won. Even if you widen the clock to the average of 20 years, the average level is 1077.6 won. If you buy yen now and the exchange rate goes back to the long-term average, you can earn 10%.
The won-yen exchange rate, which hovered above 1,000 won per 100 yen at the end of April this year, is now in the early 900 yen range, having plunged more than 9%. During this period, the yen against the dollar weakened by 5%, while the won against the dollar strengthened by 4%. Since the yen is not directly traded in the Seoul foreign exchange market, it is calculated indirectly using the standard exchange rate, the dollar.
In fact, from the second half of last year, the world’s big players, such as investment banks ( IB ), started betting on a strong yen, contrary to what they are doing now. This is based on the judgment that the value of the yen, which has been weak due to Japan maintaining negative interest rates while most countries around the world, such as the United States, have sharply raised interest rates, has now reached an inflection point. Japan’s inflation rate, the country of deflation, rose to the 4% range, the highest in 40 years, and the direction of Japanese monetary policy as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who led the Bank of Japan (BOJ) for 10 years and consolidated the era of weak yen, resigned in April . It is also expected to change. At the end of April, when this prospect peaked, the exchange rate of the won to 100 yen exceeded 1,000 won.
However, when new Governor Kazuo Ueda of the Bank of Japan announced that he would stick to an accommodative monetary policy for the time being, investors who had gone ahead began to be disappointed. As observations spread that there would be no factors to strengthen the yen, such as an exit from negative interest rates, within this year, the yen turned sharply weaker again. Kwon Young-seon, former economist at Nomura Securities and head of Woori Financial Management Research Institute , analyzed that “even though Japanese prices are rising, it is not to the point where we are concerned about inflation . did.
The long-term average is 100 yen = 1,000 won…
Will the investors who are currently investing in Ntech be able to smile in the end? Regarding the direction the yen will go in the future, major IBs generally predict a ‘strength’. As the end of the US interest rate hike is imminent, US Treasury yields fall and the gap with Japanese Treasury yields narrows. JP Morgan said, ” The normalization of the BOJ policy is likely to be a long and gradual process, but in the end, we expect the yen-to-dollar exchange rate to show a meaningful downtrend (stronger yen),” adding, “I prefer long yen positions.”
On the 14th (local time), when the US Federal Reserve System (Fed) froze the base rate, the yen-to-dollar exchange rate recorded 141.1 won. The median forecast for the year-end yen-dollar exchange rate by 39 investment banks compiled by Bloomberg was 129 yen, about 8% lower than the current level. It is expected that the yen will strengthen that much.